A black man in the White House

According to all recent polls, Obama is ahead of McCain with anywhere between a 5 and a 9-point lead and poll results have shown little variation in the past three weeks, suggesting that most Americans have made up their minds and are no longer waffling. Even The Anchorage Daily News, Alaska's largest newspaper, has come out and endorsed Barack Obama for president, stating that "Of the two candidates, Senator Obama better understands the mortgage meltdown's root causes and has the judgment and intelligence to shape a solution, as well as the leadership to rally the country behind it." So, it pretty much looks like Obama has the U.S. presidency in his pocket, right? Wrong.

Ever heard of the "Bradley Effect"? The term refers to Tom Bradley, an African-American politician who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election despite leading in polls before election day. His defeat produced the theory that many white voters lie to pollsters about their plans to vote for a black candidate.

Sure… 28 years later, incredible progress has been made, but anyone who claims this presidential race has nothing at all to do with race is burying their head in the sand. A recent Stanford University poll suggested that prejudice could cost Obama up to six percentage points and the survey also revealed that 40% of Americans still hold some negative views of African-Americans.

As many spirited supporters as Obama may have, there's a large number of rural white working-class Americans that live in a world that's all about guns and God, who look at him and don't see their president. They see someone 'different', a potential Muslim, an Arab, an extremist, someone who –according to Palin— "palls around with terrorists." Obama represents the unknown and voting for him would require a major shift in the way many American voters think and feel. It would require a leap of faith that many of them may not be willing to take, despite the dismal economic situation they already find themselves in.

Next Tuesday, November 4th, as the world watches with bated breath, Americans will have the opportunity to vote for their country's first black president. For many older African-Americans who lived through the civil rights movement, this is a glorious time; long overdue. Obama represents hope that things can be different. But, at the end of the day, and despite Obama's obvious intellect, charm and capabilities that clearly merit a presidential win, it remains to be seen whether Martin Luther King Jr's Dream will finally come true and Americans will choose to judge Obama by the content of his character and not the colour of his skin. It remains to be seen whether or not they will vote a black man in the White House.